A stock spring still far away

 Macroeconomic more relaxed

in January will be announced in late December 2010 and fourth quarter economic data, including data on behalf of CPI inflation is expected to be 5.1% the previous month highs, 1,2 months of economic data will be combined in the March announcement, so within 2 months of inflationary pressures and monetary tightening pressure is not great. From the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Agriculture, agricultural price index published by the circumstances, the retail price index of agricultural products has been a continuous decline in wholesale prices of agricultural products has declined, indicating that the national grain supply to the governor, the mayor basket price control measures such as the initial effect. In addition, data from the base point of view of inflation, CPI since December 2009 from the sharp rise in CPI in December 2010 therefore will be reduced year on year. With the decline in CPI, the central task of macroeconomic regulation and control will reduce the next step will not control inflation as the paramount task for macroeconomic news is good news.

the choice of investment strategy, in the shock of January, in the short-term investors can buy low, sell high toss of the band to take action strategy, and the overall market in 2011 because of the good, the long-term investors may be low in each callback may gradually increase the position to meet the upcoming spring market.

January, the international situation has improved

from the A-share market's history, in addition to Jidushenhan year bear market, but each spring, there will be a wave of large or small market, by investors known as the 2011 Spring Festival is approaching, the stock market will give investors a surprise?

in accordance with the practice in previous years, the central bank may be in the New Year work meeting held after the first. Year is expected to target new lending, may be more around 7.5 trillion yuan last year, the scale of decline. In addition, promote the establishment of new credit management system, in the

market will be affected accordingly, banking, insurance and other heavyweights may also be repeated, combined with close to Chinese New Year holiday, the funds need to hedge, while statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, the recent price and have a tendency to accelerate the rise again, it is estimated that in January in Shanghai and Shenzhen will once again face the shock after the half.

probability of maintaining the status quo of global liquidity large capital flows may change. From the developed economies, the U.S. economy has shown a more clear signs of recovery, the implementation of further reducing the need for quantitative easing, due to present its domestic inflation is still low, so the future monetary policy, the larger the probability of maintaining the status quo; Japan In the absence of substantive results before the Therefore, the medium to long term to maintain the current global liquidity situation easing the probability for large events, however, boosted by the U.S. economic recovery and the early capital flows to emerging markets continue to make these emerging countries have the domestic asset prices have increased more significantly, So capital flows to emerging markets to continue the momentum decreases, the possibility of future investment to increase.

2010 年 12 months, the Shanghai and Shenzhen under the pressure of funds, tumbled present trend in the 12 months most of the basic tape In the 2750-2950 point range bound. 2010 the broader market rebounded in late day, down 12 points the entire month Shanghai, Shenzhen City, up 122 points. Just before the end of the market that the December rate hike possible, without, Dec. 25 raised the benchmark interest rate the central bank suddenly announced 0.25%. The increase in deposit reserve ratio before, institutions such as making year-end market funds face extremely nervous. In this context, the market finally bent over the end of the trend appears Powei to close at 2808 points. As to the reasons for settlement by the end of the market, institutional funds tightened; the same time, by the end of the last month to stop issuing the provisions of fixed asset loans, lending market interest rates rose sharply, making the short-term funds in the market is facing greater pressure. Plate from the industry point of view, non-ferrous metals, mining, building materials, ferrous metals, real estate and home appliances industries rose, pharmaceutical biotechnology, food and beverage, delivery equipment, light manufacturing and apparel and textile industry decline in the forefront of the column.

2010 despite years of A-share market hit the most number of stocks, but its decline has become a large investor painful experience. This situation will have changed the beginning of 2011, investors could usher in the spring of profit?

expected in January loose global and domestic liquidity situation will continue, domestic monetary policy tightening is still the keynote, but the intensity should be higher than in December reduced.

the December Market turnover decreased 4 percent compared with November, the SFC 81 industries over 9 months into the net outflow of funds. But when the downturn in the market, institutional financial transactions remain active, particularly in December, continued high proportion of institutional trading, and hit a new high over the past year. In the broader market remained relatively stable situation, institutional trading accounted for the increase means that the agency is actively transfer positions convertible funds, and individual investors wait and see. Great single track the flow of funds, we find non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and coal mining industry to become the main focus of funds into the plate.

money supply still tight

December painful to me

expected to fly

institutions in order to start the New Year and the layout of the harvest, in the context of appreciation of the renminbi, the international venture capital will once again favor the emerging capital markets such as China, while the broader market dynamic price-earnings ratio is currently at historically low levels and, Therefore, among the release of suppressed emotions, the broader market rally will appear shortly.

from the demand side in terms of funds by the end of Year 12 IPO of rapid expansion of the funding needs of early January produced a certain pressure. Pressure from the additional financing is still greater, from the historical data, additional large-scale projects implemented at the beginning and end of the high probability, so in January of the additional pressure may still not optimistic. Placement is expected in January smaller scale on capital requirements. January lifting of the ban is about 280 billion market value, is December 1 / 2, had little effect on the financial side.

Therefore, from a financial point of view the demand side, demand for funds in January and December may be the same as the scale of demand, remain high, there is some pressure on the market.

However, the central bank, the Commission, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission's 2011 work meeting is expected to be held this month in succession, the 2011 blockbuster meeting will set the tone of financial supervision, a series of market highly concerned about the regulatory trends emerge in the next two weeks is expected to introduce a range of financial regulatory arrangements for the

the liquidity squeeze is expected to be eased, and external market have stimulated higher, A shares celebrate the grand opening in 2011. Analysts said the data will provide annual disclosure of the overall market valuation support in January, while the short-term funds the banking system faces tight credit mitigation and recovery of investment in fixed assets, December CPI will fall and so the marginal improvement of market sentiment and provide a rebound force.

capital supply from the point of view, with the easing of inter-Korean conflict, risk aversion makes the decline in foreign investors, the recent capital inflows into China by overseas funds were net re- into the state of investor sentiment somewhat stable, the board announced the company's average daily number of new A share accounts and securities accounts active degree of rebound. December 2010 the number of new issues of the Fund is only 10 for the November 1 / 3, but in January the number of new rapid increase in the Fund is expected to eliminate the future situation of insufficient supply of new money. Therefore, the overall situation, the supply of funds, short-term negative factors will disappear, and long-term trend in money supply has not changed, the supply side of funds in January is expected to be slightly better at 12 months.